1. First off, the final presidential debate is tonight, Bob Schieffer of CBS moderates at Hofstra University. John McCain goes into the debate tonight as the clear underdog with an RCP polling average of 8.2 points behind Barack Obama. And a new NYT/CBS poll out this morning shows an Obama lead over McCain of 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters.

This is obviously not–in all candor–’having ‘em right where we want ‘em.’ But, keep in mind a couple of things. A) Debates can occasionally change voter perception. The Nixon Kennedy debate is one example. More recently, Ronald Reagan’s performance against Jimmy Carter in 1980 was seen as a huge boost to Ronald Reagan, especially as he disabused notions of being too radically right wing and as Jimmy Carter blew a few points such as stating he consulted his daughter on the most important issue of the day (nuclear war). B) Candidates can come from behind. In mid-October of 1980, Gallup had Carter beating Reagan by about 8 points (Reagan won by about 9 points). In late October 2004, John Kerry and George Bush were tied at 49% (Bush ultimately won by 3 percentage points).

–What does John McCain need to do tonight? Should he directly confront Barack Obama on his associations? The NYT poll implies that McCain has gone too negative. Has he really or is this just the media tale of the race? Call me with your advice on my radio show this a.m. I’ll be on CNN this a.m., this afternoon, and tonight with more comments.

1b. I’m for making a smart connection of the Ayers (and even Wright) associations. But October surprises or gifts can sometimes come unexpectedly, and the point Republicans should hammer now (including John McCain this evening) was given to us by a plumber from Ohio: Joe Wurzelbacher who engaged Barack Obama about his small business and Obama’s tax plans and Obama told him, "when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody." Here’s Joe speaking with Neal Cavuto yesterday. AUDIO.

–This is of a piece with what Barack Obama told Charlie Gibson in the primary debates earlier this year regarding capital gains when Gibson pointed out that reducing cap gains increases tax revenue; Obama responded: "Well, Charlie, what I’ve said is that I would look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness."

–John McCain has been uneven in making the pro-growth, low-taxes, supply-side argument in this campaign and in the debates. Tonight is the last opportunity to sound like Jack Kemp and Paul Ryan. I’m hoping the campaign has drilled their messages into his thinking points for tonight. It’s an optimistic message, it worked for Ronald Reagan and, moreover, in a slumped and recessionary economy in the early 1980s, those policies put in place by Ronald Reagan worked for America.

2. As John McCain should give a full throated defense of his economic plans tonight, so too should he not neglect the social issues, and neither shall we. This was another leg of the Ronald Reagan stool. Gary Bauer once put it this way: "You can measure a great nation in a lot of different ways. You can measure it by the strength of its military, the growth of its economy, the gleam of its cities. We are a great nation by those measurements and many, many others. But you can also measure a nation by how many of its families are broken, by how big its virtue deficit is, how many of its children cry themselves to sleep at night….The fact of the matter is that…all over America too many of our children are crying themselves to sleep. Too many children without a father’s arms to comfort them, too many children exploited by sex or drugs or pornography, too man children that have bought into the popular culture’s song that if it feels good do it. By those measurements, this country is in danger of becoming something much less than a great, great nation."

Indeed, a nation that does not value life can be as rich as it wants to be, but it will still be less than great. A rich nation that does not have world class educational standards, content, and accomplishments will still be less than great. A rich nation with an entrenched drug problem, will always be less than it can be. And on these fronts, John McCain should also speak. The sad truth is, still too many children are aborted and a culture of life is undervalued in America. Still, too many children are born and raised without fathers. Still, too many children are stuck in underperforming schools with little to no alternative and our reading, math, and history scores are in the dumpster. The sad truth is, too many families are struggling with members and friends in the vice grip of drug addiction and abuse. The numbers on all these cultural indicia have either remained flat over the last several years or actually gotten worse.

John McCain can speak to all of this, and should. There is a social case for conservatism after all, and we’ve done poorly at the ballot box when we ignore those issues. Robby George will speak with us about some of this in our third hour, he has authored a newly published essay on Barack Obama, life issues, and the confusion of some conservative supporters of Obama.

3. Speaking of the intersection of foreign policy, American strength, and social issues. Jesse Jackson stepped into it all–again. Speaking in France last week, Jackson said "Zionists who have controlled American policy for decades" remain strong, but they’ll lose a great deal of their clout when Barack Obama enters the White House. "Obama is about change," Jackson said. "And the change that Obama promises is not limited to what we do in America itself. It is a change of the way America looks at the world and its place in it." Jackson warns that he isn’t an Obama confidant or adviser, "just a supporter." But he adds that Obama has been "a neighbor or, better still, a member of the family." Jackson’s son has been a close friend of Obama for years, and Jackson’s daughter went to school with Obama’s wife Michelle. "We helped him start his career," says Jackson. "And then we were always there to help him move ahead. He is the continuation of our struggle for justice not only for the black people but also for all those who have been wronged."

An Obama foreign policy spokesman said yesterday, ""Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. is not an adviser to the Obama campaign and is therefore in no position to interpret or share Barack Obama’s views on Israel and foreign policy." Fair enough, but with Louis Farrakhan’s endorsement and the endorsement of Jesse Jackson who holds the foregoing beliefs, is this not some cause for concern? Are we to believe Obama’s strongest and most vocal supporters or his constant refutation of them? The media has tried to graft onto John McCain the beliefs of a handful of extremist yelling at his rallies. It’s a dog that doesn’t hunt. But what of well-known activists and politicians who say extreme things about their candidate? Not caterwauling from a handful in the crowds, but calm statements from often or erstwhile respected national figures?

4. Speaking of often or erstwhile respected figures and associates. The liberal columnist and author Thomas Frank may have handed the talking or debating point to John McCain tonight, courtesy of his column in today’s WSJ . Frank writes to defend his friend Bill Ayers, and in doing so, I think he over-shot by about 25 miles. Frank writes: "Bill’s got lots of friends, and that’s because he is today a dedicated servant of those less fortunate than himself; because he is unfailingly generous to people who ask for his help; and because he is kind and affable and even humble. Moral qualities which, by the way, were celebrated boisterously on day one of the GOP convention in September." Frank continues: "Mr. Ayers has been involved with countless foundation efforts and has received various awards. He volunteers for everything. He may once have been wanted by the FBI, but in the intervening years the man has become such a good citizen he ought to be an honorary Eagle Scout."

–Okay, all John McCain need do tonight is ask, "Senator Obama: do you agree with your supporter in the WSJ today who writes that Bill Ayers represents a lot of moral qualities and ought to be an Eagle Scout?" And then, I would hope John McCain would be ready to defend against what is the predictable Obama response, that Ayers was active with the Underground when Obama was only eight years old, etc. We’ve spoken of that response before. Tonight, John McCain should bat ‘er out of the park.

5. One of the major themes of the Democrats is how much the American brand and image has suffered abroad under the tenure of George Bush. This argument does not hold much water. We’ve pointed out the turn to pro-American leaders that the people in Italy, France, and Germany (not to mention Poland and other countries) have made. Well, last night we were reaffirmed with another one, from our neighbors to the north, in Canada.

The pro-American, pro-tax cuts, conservative social issues Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, won re-election last night and actually increased his Conservative party’s numbers in the Candadian Parliament by as many as 20 seats. We haven’t spent enough time here speaking about Stephen Harper and it’s a bit odd, frankly, now that I think about it. Previous Canadian Prime Minsters used to receive a lot of attention in America, think of Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, Joe Clark, and Jean Chretien, and John Diefenbaker.

We ought to promote Stephen Harper more in this country, and learn from him. I’m going to promote him to the Claremont Institute as a possible candidate for the annual Churchill Award for Statesmanship next year.

6. Last word today goes to Mike Gerson, writing on John McCain’s unfortunate times and Barack Obama’s successes. He dismisses conservative criticism of VP Sarah Palin–and rightly so given some of the rhetoric of late (such as calling her a cancer on the GOP). He then ties the break in the polls for Obama to the economic crisis, where the executive branch and party will almost always receive the most blame. Gerson concludes his column thusly:

"During the financial crisis Obama has contributed nothing of note or consequence. His only recent accomplishment has been to say questionable things in the debates — attacking Republicans and capitalism for a credit meltdown that congressional Democrats helped to cause, blaming America for Iran’s nuclear ambitions, talking piously about genocide prevention when his own early Iraq policies might have resulted in genocide — all while sounding supremely reassuring and presidential.

"Obama’s current success is not enjoyable for conservatives. But this does not make McCain an incompetent. Maybe he is a great man running at the most difficult of times."

Tags: Jesse Jackson, McCain, Michael Gerson, Obama, Stephen Harper

Posted on Wednesday, October 15th, 2008 at 9:23 am and is filed under Morning Report, Politics.